Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
